Statistical Analysis Of The Matt Holliday Trade To The St. Louis Cardinals

Stat Boy says Matt Holliday will love hitting against the NL Central's best.

Good afternoon, folks. Had to wake Stat Boy up from his hangover nap with the news that the St. Louis Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday from the Oakland A's. As usual, Stat Boy has got some good news if you happen to support the Cardinals ... and bad news if you happen to support one of the other National League Central Division contenders.

Take it away, Stat Boy.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Redbird Nation up in arms despite acquiring Matt Holliday. St. Louis is acquiring a career .315 hitter, a three-time All-Star and would have been the 2007 NL MVP had Jimmy Rollins not stolen it from him. However, GM John Mozeliak is paying Billy Beane a hefty price with hot-shot third base prospect Brett Wallace, highly touted right-handed pitcher Clayton Moretnsen and outfielder Shane Peterson.

When it comes to trades with Beane and Oakland, I'd be remiss if I didn't give a buyer beware notice because of the last time these two hooked up for a big trade.

But I'm not here to re-ignite a burning sensation you should probably see a doctor for. Instead, I come to bring St. Louis fans a little bit of good news and the rest of the division some really bad news.

The common misconception is that Holliday can't hit outside of hitters haven Coors Field because he was allergic to gray road uniforms. Apparently, that doesn't count toward NL Central teams, especially the contenders.

• Against the Milwaukee Brewers, Holliday owns a 1.082 OPS with 5 HRs and 13 RBIs, with three of the five dingers coming at Miller Park where he owns a .928 OPS.
• Against the Houston Astros, he owns a .989 OPS and will challenge Albert Pujols for longest home run in Minute Maid history if he gets to face a flat Brad Lidge slider.
• Against the Chicago Cubs, Holliday OPSes .856 ... but his number surprisingly slip to .652 at Wrigley Field. Probably distracted by this particular bleacher babe.

Interesting to note that the team Holliday OPSes the highest against is, in fact, the St. Louis Cardinals, where he owns a career 1.225 against the Redbirds.

Want more numbers? Of course you do.

He batted .394 with a .475 on-base percentage while slugging .750. I'm sure Cardinals fans are glad Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Ryan Franklin don't have to face that anymore.

Then there are Holliday's numbers at Busch Stadium II. I'll acknowledge the small sample size, but even Don Denkinger can see .385/.478/.872/1.350 is impressive. Not to mention the five homers in 46 career plate appearances.

When the going gets tough, Holliday seems to get going with a .305 career batting average after the seventh inning to go along with 38 homers and 142 runs batted in.

Truth be told (as pointed out by Hire Jim Essian), Holliday's bat is, in essence, a replacement for the 30 homer 100 ribbie year expected out of Troy Glaus at the hot corner. But more than that, adding Holliday shows that the Cardinals will not settle to be just "one of the guys" in the race.

This trade means they're for real.

Whatever that means

Defending Jake Peavy

Get your popcorn ready and your Facebook status updated, Stat Boy is here to defend Jake Peavy.

Yesterday, the 2007 NL Cy Young award winner did like any normal 28-year-old with a family in mind, he made the rational decision of choosing to live in beautiful San Diego rather than the South Side of Chicago.

I would probably make that same decision too, unless the White Sox threw in a lifetime supply of chicken from Harold's Chicken Shack.

However, Stat Boy feels as if Harold's Chicken did not play a part in Peavy's decision to dismiss the White Sox. But the following three things might have.

1. "I like the NL" really means "I like Petco Park." Can you blame Jake Peavy for not wanting to leave The Spacious Confines? I mean, he is nearly unhittable as he owns a 1.08 WHIP and batters only hit .219 while slugging at a .334 clip. You've gotta be some sort of clinically insane pitcher to want to leave Petco for The Cell when you're putting up Nintendo numbers.

2. West is best for his pitching style. But it's not just Petco Park that keeps Peavy's pimp hand strong. Playing in the NL West not only means facing weak sister line-ups, but it means doing so in pitcher's paradise parks such as Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park. He is 40-29 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.202 WHIP and 559 strikeouts.

3. The White Sox aren't that good. Going from a 19-22 team to a 17-23 team really isn't a stepping into the heat of a pennant race. The ChiSox are inept defensively without a center fielder that can overcome the deficiencies of Carlos Quentin and an aging Jermaine Dye. The Sox are only 10-9 at home, while the Pads are 14-6 at confines that seem to be truly friendly to Peavy.

The diminishing returns factor might be the biggest hurdle the San Diego Padres must clear in trading Jake Peavy. They balked at the best offer on the table from the Braves, then they walked away from an equally solid offer from the Cubs.

If this goes any further, you might be able to get a former Cy Young winner for a bucket of balls and some pine tar.

Pending Peavy's approval, of course.

Stat Boy Presents: Change Cubs Fan Can Believe In

It was lights out for the Cubs almost as soon as Albert Pujols launched a first-inning homer that knocked out the 'I' in Big Mac Land. What can I say? I guess that is The Machine's way to say he is ready to move on from the Mark McGwire Era.

And Stat Boy is eager to move away from the era in which Ryan Freel, Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles patrol third base.

Once upon a time, Freel was a very valuable utility player who averaged 36 steals and a .367 on-base percentage while playing various positions for the Cincinnati Reds from 2004 to 2006. Since then, Freel has strayed away from stealing bases and has wandered over to Craigslist to steal some hearts as he has 21 steals since his hey-day.

And in addition to his 0-for-3 night at the plate, Freel found a way to do the impossible: Overthrow the giant of a Gold Glove winning first baseman also known as Derrek Lee.

Meanwhile, Fontenot continues to struggle, even though manager Lou Piniella moved him back to his natural position of second base. And Miles has been as effective as Mike Damone's five-point plan.

So it's time to get all fantasy baseball in this bitch and invoke some change Cubs fans can believe in.

Radical Step One is going to a local sports equipment store and buying a new second baseman's mitt for Alfonso Soriano, who is making $16 million this year and probably could afford to buy his own glove. Soriano slugged as a second sacker as he mashed 157 homers, posted an .820 OPS and stole 162 bases as a full-timer from 2001-05.

On the other hand, he committed 105 errors at second base in that time.

But second basemen that average 31 homers, 38 doubles, 32 steals and 90 ribbies don't grow on trees. Sometimes the best defense is an offensive attack that will produce long balls, two-baggers and swiped bags.

Soriano's hop and dart-throwing arm in left field would be gone, but not forgotten. Speaking of dart throwing, remember when Bob Brenly said you could throw a dart in the Cubs dugout and find a better defensive outfielder than Soriano.

If I was throwing the dart, it would have hit Micah Hoffpauir.

The life-long Four-A player is what Daryle Ward would have been had he not eaten the entire post-game spread.

Hoffpauir might as well have his name changed to Hoffpower as he has hit .314 with a .372 OBP to go along with four homers and 14 RBIs ... and in 53 less plate appareances has outperformed the Cubs everyday first baseman, who also has four home runs and 18 runs batted in.

"The Hoff" can play left and put Brenly's prediction to the test. And even if he butchers a ball or two (or two dozen), it will matter less if he keeps slugging at a .557 clip.

And at third base, Bobby Scales, please stand up, grab a glove and head over to the area vacated by Aramis Ramirez.

Scales had more hits in his first week in the big leagues than Fontenot and Miles have combined for in their last 14 games combined.

Hopefully on this road trip the Cubs will find their bats while somehow stranding Fontenot, Miles and Neal Cotts at the San Diego Zoo.

Hey Ryan, Stat Boy Needs To Check Out Your 'Riot' Stick

Ryan Theriot has more home runs than David Ortiz, Matt Holliday, Chipper Jones and David Wright.

That stat alone is worth Bud Selig demanding a urine sample from the diminutive Chicago Cubs shortstop ... especially after a two-homer game Wednesday against the San Diego Padres.

And even though it is May 14th and Theriot will certainly be passed by all of those players before the season is over, it is never too soon for Stat Boy to take a closer look at what the Cubbie blue spark plug is up to.

Theriot hit four homers for the National League Central champions in 1,258 plate appearances from 2007 to 2008. Now, one-fourth of the Middle-Infield Midget Society (along with Mike Fontenot, Ryan Freel and Aaron Miles) has five homers in about 130 plate appearances.

The Cajun Shortstop Sensation is on pace for a 20 home run season. If Theriot followed the pace he had set the last two years, it would have taken 6,290 plate appearances for him to hit the 20-homer plateau.

Yep, sounds like the stuff that laboratory-created ballplayers is made of. I hope Theriot has Peter Gammons on speed dial when the day of reckoning comes. Or a good alibi at the least.

Salukis slide continues with loss at Nevada

It's never good when a road trip starts off with a flat tire.

That's a lesson the SIU men's basketball team probably just learned.

The Salukis have lost five of their last six games and its most recent loss, a 62-48 downer at the hands of Nevada, might have been the most puzzling to me.

SIU (3-5) was up 27-24 at halftime, but it was a lead that wasn't meant to be as the Wolfpack opened the second half on a 16-0 run. You've got to give it to the Salukis for being resillient throughout their early season struggles. They cut the Nevada (5-4) lead to six when senior forward Tony Boyle (14 points 7 rebounds) knocked down a jumper with 4:10 remaining in the game before the Wolfpack's Armon Johnson took over.

Johnson scored a game-high 16 points, eight of which came in the games final five minutes to ice the win for the home team.

For more on the Saluki loss, I turn it over to my alter ego, Stat Boy. And as always, important stats are bold.

...

Speaking of turning it over, turnovers played a big role in the demise of SIU as it committed 18 turnovers. Giving the ball away when you're shooting 28.3 percent from the field isn't going to help a team struggling to find its offensive identity.

By the way, the Salukis have committed 95 turnovers in their five losses this season (19 per game average) for those of you keeping score at home.

SIU head coach Chris Lowery played lineup shuffle again Sunday as he inserted senior guard Wesley Clemmons into the starting five. It's hard to argue with the move, especially after he lit up Charlotte from beyond the arc as he went 4-for-5 from 3-point territory. However, his numbers took a dive against Nevada as he went 0-for-4 from the field, scoring 1 point off a free-throw.

Clemmons didn't get any help from his backcourt mates either. Saluki guards not named Bryan Mullins (13 points 5 assists 4 steals) combined for 5 points on 1-for-9 shooting from the field. The much-heralded class of Kevin Dillard, Torres Roundtree, Ryan Hare and Justin Bocot need to find a way to fill up the cup. It will make the lives of Boyle, sophomore forward Carlton Fay and the rest of the bigs easier.

In a positive note for SIU, it was able to outrebound Nevada 29-27, with 14 of those coming on the offensive glass. It's too bad the Salukis were unable to turn them all into second chance points.

...

SIU returns to the great state of Illinois Wednesday night as it travels to DeKalb to face Northern Illinois. Here's hoping the team has a short memory and can get back in the win column and help Chris Lowery win his 100th game as Saluki head coach.

Sports Speak: The 'Their record isn't indicative of how good they are' Edition

I sense a disturbing trend coming from the world of press conferences.

I understand why coaches are very careful with their words. They don't want to provide bulletin board material for opponents. They don't want their players to see their words about their competition to the point where the players will slack off thinking they're facing a cupcake.

Yet, my alter ego (Stat Boy) cannot allow this to go any further. He is confused because numbers don't lie, right?

SIU men's basketball coach, Chris Lowery, the floor is yours.

"They're a much better team than 2-6," Lowery said. "Every game they've played has been like this. It's come down to the last possession, last shot."

Stat Boy says: With all due respect, Charlotte's 2-6 record is indicative of the team it fields on a daily basis. Of the 49ers' six losses, they have two one-point losses, a three-point loss and a five point loss.

And they're not playing the little sisters of the poor, either. The team's to have defeat Charlotte (Old Dominion, Clemson, Arizona State, Providence and Cal-State Fullerton) have a combined record of 33-14. Of those squads, Clemson is 9-0 and ASU is ranked No. 19. On the other hand, ODU is .500 (3-3), CSF is one game under the break even point (4-5).

So credit Charlotte's AD for putting together a tough non-conference schedule, but good teams find ways to turn those 'Ls' into 'Ws' because really those are the only stats that matter. But if you want to be a good team, then you have to beat good teams. If not, you're going to be an average or even below average team.

It's as simple as that.

As for the opponents in 49er victories (SIU and UNC Greensboro), they've combined to post a 4-9 record.

Oh yeah, about C-Lo's crew. The floor now belongs to the representative from Charlotte, Bobby Lutz.

"I don't think their record is indicative of how good they are," Lutz said. "I know they are the most physical team we've played this year, and we've played some pretty good teams."

Stat Boy say: Lutz might be correct on this one, as every coach that faces the Salukis comments on the physical nature in which the Egyptian Hunting Dawgs play the game.

Duke's Coach K lauded SIU defenders for being aggressive without the need to run a full court press. UCLA's Ben Howland applauded the Salukis' defensive efforts, and that's high praise coming from one of the nation's top defensive coaches. Heck, even Saint Louis head man Rick Majerus gave Southern's "D" the thumbs up in between stories of the olden days and basically calling Brett Thompson the next Michael Doleac.

Still, Stat Boy could (and would) argue that the Salukis' 3-4 record is indicative of the team that takes the court on a nightly basis.

They're young and talented as six newcomers are averaging at least 11 minutes per game, two of them start (Ryan Hare and Torres Roundtree) and Kevin Dillard was a former starter. Then there's junior forward Christian Cornelius who might as well be a newcomer as is averaging double-digit minutes for the first time in his career because he's finally shaken the injury bug.

(Knock on wood)

But with youth comes inexperience. And with inexperience comes the streaky play that comes with players still adjusting to the collegiate game.

Dillard is the perfect example of Southern's up-and-down season. Illinois' reigning Mr. Basketball has had several highlight-reel moments early this season. He has dazzled crowds and defenders with a combination of flashy passes and dribbling that would make crowds at the Rucker stand and cheer. He's shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc and averaging 9.7 points per game, to boot.

Then again, he makes youthful mistakes with some passes when they go awry. Or takes shots early in the shot clock. It's the gift and the curse of young stars.

That's what you get out of .500 teams. You get games that make you say "Wow, this team is going to be good." Then you get games that leave you saying "This is going to be a long season."

Don't get me wrong, there is plenty of basketball to be played this season. SIU has yet to even break into Missouri Valley Conference play, and that will be the ultimate indicator of where the season is going to go.

Until then, don't be surprised if this season is a rollercoaster.

(Photo credit to the best photo editor in the history of the world, Stephen Rickerl, who caught a very disappointed photo of SIU head coach Chris Lowery during the team's 66-64 loss against Charlotte).

Patrick Beverley is going overseas, and not with an exchange program

Bob Sakamoto of the Chicago Tribune has the Patrick Beverley going overseas story covered like a jimmy-hat. Stat Boy might have found a more intriguing reason on why the former Arkansas star is walking out.

"It had nothing to do with academics,'' said Beverley, the Razorbacks' lone returning starter who averaged 12.1 points and 6.6 rebounds. "I violated NCAA rules, and what happened next went over the coaches' heads. A lot of people thought it was because of grades, but I go to class every day."

For a second, let's overlook the fact that he violated NCAA rules to bring the buried lead out.

The 6-foot-1-inch point guard averaged 6.6 rebounds per game despite having a 7-footer on the team.

By the way, that 7-footer averaged only 2.9 RPG in 16.3 minutes per game. Still, extrapolate that into a 30 minute average and those numbers jump to 5.3 RPG per game...not good enough for a guy who is almost a foot taller than the team's leading rebounder.

Screw grades. Screw NCAA violations. Maybe the reason Beverley is headed across the Atlantic is because he outshines a guy who stands a foot taller than he does.

Did Stat Boy just use Mo Williams and Jeff Blauser in the same sentence?

Apparently, LeBron James doesn't read this blog. And why would he? He's a multi-millionaire currently overseas trying to bring the gold home to the U.S.A. But if he did, maybe he'd be less than thrilled if he had read yesterday's blog, his excitement would be a little more tempered. Or maybe not? We'll let my alter-ego "Stat Boy" handle this one.

Mo Williams' addition to the Cavs looks like one of those "if you can't beat 'em, steal 'em" kinda deals. He lit up the Cavs in to the tune of 26 points, nine assists and more than six rebounds per game. The four game sample size isn't much--but it's still something to take note of.

• In a March 22 108-98 Bucks victory, Williams scored 29 points, grabbed 5 boards and dished out 13 assists.
• In a Feb. 26 105-102 victory, Mo dropped a season-high (and presumably a career-high) 37 points to go along with six assists and seven rebounds.
• In a Nov. 20 111-107 triumph, Williams scored 20 points with 9 assists and six rebounds.

In closing, Mo averaged 28.6 ppg, six rebounds and 9.3 assists in the Bucks' three wins against Bron-Bron's Cavs. That's 11.4 more points, 2.5 more rebounds and three more assists than he averaged over the entire NBA season.

Those are some pretty intriguing numbers if you ask me.

Here's hoping (for LeBron's sake) that Mo Williams isn't to the Cavs what Jeff Blauser was to the Cubs.*

*Jeff Blauser was an All-Star Atlanta Braves shortstop. Blauser hit .351 with a .431 OBP and a 1.023 OPS in 78 career games against the Cubs. In two seasons as a Cub, he hit .230 with a .343 OBP and .703 OPS.

In response to 'LeBron gives Cavs 'A' for Williams trade' (Akron Beacon Journal)